 |
Japan will face population crisis if birth rates continue to decline
June 25, 2005
Japan will face a population crisis if the aging population continues to expand, and birth rates continue to decline.
In Perspective this week, we take a look at the rippling effects of an aging population, and the economic challenges for the Japanese government in taking care of pensioners.
Welcome to the program, I'm Melanie Yip.
A small private institution in Japan was in the news lately. Hagi International University had to file for bankruptcy protection due to lack of students.
A university that could fill a capacity of 300, Hagi International University managed to draw only 42 student admissions this year. And economic analysts say that this is the first time a university had to file for bankruptcy due to lack of students.
But Hagi's example highlighted a more pressing issue in Japan, that of an expanding aging population, and falling birth rates.
 |
|
Dr Makoto Atoh is a Professor at Waseda University's Department of Human Science and the former Director-General of the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, a government agency that studies the population trends in Japan. He tells me more.
MA: Now, the proportion of elderly people in Japan is about 20% of the total population, so 1 out of 5 is over 65 years old. And also the Japanese population is starting to decline, and the fertility is the main reason for the population decline, and the hyper aging of the Japanese population is the falling birth rates. It has already been like this for the past 30 years, since the middle of the 1970s, and the fertility ratio is 1.29, which is a low level compared to some other Asian countries, and certain European countries.
According to a Japanese Cabinet Office white paper on youth, the falling birth rates in Japan could also be attributed to young couples prioritizing career over starting a family, says Professor Purnendra Jain who chairs the Asian Studies Department at the University of Adelaide.
PJ: Children of this generation do not want to follow what their parents did, in other words, work, get married and have children. They are trying to do things differently, and one of the things is also they are marrying quite late in their life, usually their late 20s or early 30s. And even if they get married, they are not going to have children until very late. Even if they have children, they will keep it at one or maybe the most two. If you look at married couples in Japan with children, there are only 32.5%, whereas married couples without children in Japan are growing at a rapid rate. So even if people get married, they are not having children.
While many young couples delay marriage plans, Dr Atoh reveals that from a recent survey, most Japanese couples would still want to have children.
MA: When you look at women wanting to be more involved in social life, and the work life. But if you look at many surveys, more than 90% of young people want to get married eventually, and also have two children on the average.
And currently, there are certain measures put in place by the Japanese government to tackle the problem of falling birth rates. Dt Atoh continues.
MA: Japanese government already introduced parental leave ¡V 1 year parental leave with income compensation of 40%. And also the government tried to expand child care service systems, by extending the operating hours among other things. The Japanese government tries to provide more economic support for childcare and also child allowances. They are also thinking of introducing tax exemptions for childcare.
However, many analysts feel that more could be done to help these working adults and parents. Dr Hiro Katsumata from the Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies, or IDSS in Singapore.
HK: We have to look at the structure of the society. You see, in the structure of a modern society, competition is tough, and there is supposed to be no discrimination against anybody including men, women, young or old. Therefore, women also want to be promoted. If they leave the company for a certain period of time, they will obviously fall behind, therefore they do not want to take maternity leave. Over the last 2-3 years, many nurseries or kindergartens are being built near the subway stations. That is probably the most noticeable trend within the last few years. But then, the numbers are still limited. I haven't seen any drastic measures taken either by the government or by the private sector.
To add to that, Japan has often topped the list as one of the most expensive places to live in, especially for the city dwellers. The high cost of living can also be attributed to married couples not wanting to have children.
And in the long run, this could spell trouble for the Japanese government if declining birth rates continue. Dr Makoto Atoh from Waseda University.
MA: The first most important thing is we will face a labor shortage, and falling birth rates turn into a decline in productivity. And also, we will face hyper-aging, and it will risk he sustainability of the social security system, including pension and healthcare. And also the three main components in the social security scheme will be affected as well. Already, the Japanese aging population is increasing, so pension benefits have to increase and the burden falls on people who have to contribute to the system.
Meeting the possible labor shortage could mean that the older workers have to delay retirement plans, says Dr Hiro Katsumata from IDSS in Singapore.
HK: We ask the older people to work and increase their retirement age. Now, the retirement age is 60 but many companies are increasing it to 65. So that is one thing to deal with the aging population. The second measure that can be considered is to import labor from foreign countries but the question many may ask is where.
With an expanding aging population and declining birth rates that are barely sustainable, the Japanese government will be financially burdened in providing for the elderly or pensioners, warns Dr Makoto Atoh.
MA: In the year 2000, we introduced long term care insurance system for elderly people who have senior dementia, or bedridden. It is working very well but it costs a lot of money. The government is changing this system. And also, the government is trying to streamline the medical insurance, and medical health care systems.
Professor Purnendra Jain from the University of Adelaide agrees.
PJ: Now, younger people are also forced to contribute more in the pension systems. And people who are about to retire or are retired within the next 4-5 years are getting extremely worried about their retirement pension benefits because they know that the government does not have enough in the kitty. And it might be difficult for them to survive on what the government is trying to provide. So in a sense, there is a sense of anxiety, there is a sense of disappointment among the population in Japan. And the government is aware of the situation and they are trying to address the problem. In fact, the whole system is in crisis and they are not going to address it very soon.
Are there solutions then to solve Japan's population crisis? One possible solution is drafting a policy to relax foreign immigration laws to expand the pool of skilled workers allowed into Japan. Dr Makoto Atoh, former Director-General of the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research.
MA: Japan has already tried to accept foreign labor in the field of professional and technical industries. But the government is very hesitant to accept those simple skilled labor, or unskilled labor. Since 1989-90, the Japanese government has decided to accept Japanese descendents.
But getting mass support for this bill will be a challenge, says Professor Purnendra Jain from the University of Adelaide.
PJ: If you look at Japan, in terms of its immigration history, or getting migrants to address the birth rate problem, I do not think Japan has a foreign labor import policy. I mean, Japan is not even taking people on humanitarian grounds. If you look at the number of refugees or asylum seekers going to Japan, and the number of them being accepted officially is ridiculously low. It is about less than 1%. Whereas in Canada for example, more than 50% asylum seekers are given migrant status. So Japan is not yet in the business of thinking out migration as a panacea to address these kinds of problems.
Professor Purnendra Jain who chairs the Asian Studies Department at the University of Adelaide. And earlier, Professor Makoto Atoh from Waseda University in Japan.
That ends Perspective this week. For Radio Singapore International, I'm Melanie Yip.
|
|
edit2.gif)
