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China warns Taiwan is risking war
November 20, 2003
China has threatened to use force against Taiwan should the island's pro-independence movement continue to escalate. Beijing regards Taiwan as a renegade province.
Taiwanese President Chen Shui-Bien who has formally declared his intentions to seek re-election in next year's presidential elections, has indicated that Taipei will hold a referendum on political issues, including a revision of Taiwan's constitution in 2006 to reflect its full-fledged statehood.
Will China's hard stance on Taiwan, help to gather more support for President Chen in his re-election bid?
Melanie Yip put this question to Colin Mackerras, Professor of International Business and Asian Studies at Griffith University in Australia.
Prof. Mackerras: It could have the possibility of increasing Chen Shui-Bien's popular support and I suspect that is the reason he's doing it. There is a lot of strong feeling in Taiwan about that. But I feel that it is quite dangerous to push it too far. The reason why China is taking a hard stance, that is not a particularly new phenomenon. China has been taking a hard stance for a long time, ever since the People's Republic of China came into existence. If you compare the line that China is taking now to the past, it is adopting a tougher stance now. In 2000, there was a white paper on Taiwan put up by China about the peaceful policy China wishes to adopt for a reunification with Taiwan, it also mentioned China would use force if the situation was drastic to warrant the use of force.
The vice-president of Beijing's Taiwan Affairs Office, Wang Zaixi said "Taiwan's President Chen Shui-Bien's recent pro-separatist activities had crossed Beijing's 'red line' and run the risk of triggering a war with the mainland." What are the probabilities of Beijing using force on Taiwan?
Prof. Mackerras: It is not likely that war between China and Taiwan will happen in the near future. I think once the (Taiwanese Presidential) election is over, and we do not know who will win then, we could see a definite cooling of the situation. From Taiwan's point of view, they are not in a strong position viz-a-viz China. China has gotten stronger during the last ten years, economically and militarily. The balance between the two has shifted. If you look at the global strategic balance of forces, China is much more important than it was ten years ago. If Taiwan were to go to war with China, it can count on American support. Just at the moment, it is not in America's interests to support Taiwan for two reasons. First, America has got its hands on another war, the Iraq war, and the Iraq war has not been going as favorably as American expected. The United States does not want to antagonize China and it is important that China should not be too antagonistic over the economy, Korea and the general balance of forces. If I were Taiwan, I would not take the threat of war with a grain of salt, I would take the threats seriously.
If Taiwanese President Chen Shui-Bien should succeed in his re-election bid for next year, the victory will send a clear message on Taiwan's bid for pro-independence to China, what are your views on that?
Prof. Mackerras: The Chinese government will never accept that while the Communist Party is still in power. However, it will matter when the issue involves what the international community thinks. If Taiwan were to claim its independence without any international support, it will be difficult unless Taiwan received international support. The United States has been making equivocal statements about their support or non-support of Taiwan's independence. It is most unlikely that (the United States) wants to have anything to do with the issue, they do not want to antagonize the People's Republic of China, more than any other single step would do.
And that was Colin Mackerras, Professor of International Business and Asian Studies at Griffith University in Australia, speaking with Melanie Yip.
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