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The Clintons' waning power within the Democratic Party
May 14, 2008
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Mrs Hillary Clinton scored an impressive victory in the West Virginia primary on Tuesday, beating Mr Barack Obama by more than 40 percentage points. But the victory is unlikely to gain her the Democratic party’s presidential nomination. Mr Obama is ahead in pledged delegates, he has gained more popular votes than she has and super-delegates (elected and party officials) are flocking to him. As even one of Mrs Clinton’s staunches supporters, Mr James Carville, admitted this week: “I think it’s likely Obama is the nominee, but not certain.” Mr Carville went on to say that he will be with Mr Obama.
It was a significant statement. Mr Carville was part of the famed “War Room” that made Mr Bill Clinton president in 1992. For 16 years, he’s been part of the Clinton circle. He’s reluctant admission that the Force is now with Obama and he, as a loyal Democrat, will support the presumed nominee – signals a changing of the guard within the Democratic party.
The Clinton have dominated the party now for 16 years – eight while Mr Clinton was president and eight while a Republican occupied the White House. Their dominance was due to a number of factors. To begin with, Mr Clinton was the first Democrat since Franklin Roosevelt to win two consecutive terms in office. Even the great Harry Truman had failed to do that, having succeeded into office when Roosevelt died and having become deeply unpopular in the wake of the Korean War. Similarly, Lyndon Johnson decided not to seek re-election in 1968 because of the unpopular Vietnam War. And Jimmy Carter was beaten by Ronald Reagan in 1980 when he sought election to a second term. In that same period, four Republicans won two terms as president – Dwight Eisenhower, Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan and George Bush.
Bill Clinton dominated his party because he was about the only Democrat in more than 50 years to have served two terms as president. You get lots of respect for unique political achievements of that kind. In addition, Mr Clinton was a superb networker, a brilliant campaigner and an indefatigable fund-raiser. The Clintons were powerful because they were powerful; they were influential because they won elections.
That is bound to change now – and the change is going to be wrenching. The old guard in any party or group doesn’t give up power easily. But give up power the Clintons must. Not only was Mrs Clinton defeated – a sign in itself that the Clintons are no longer as powerful as they once were – there is now a new guard waiting to take over. If Mr Obama were to win the presidency in November, the consigning of the Clintons to political history would be complete.
Part of what has taken place was in fact motivated by the desire to do precisely that. Sixteen years is a long time and many in the party -including old lions like Ted Kennedy - must have been chomping at the bit to get out of the Clintons’ shadow. This explains in part why they were so eager to jump on the Obama bandwagon as soon as he showed he was viable. When a big banyan tree is chopped down, the little trees underneath it can get a chance to grow. And not only the lesser trees but the grass also. The Clintonistas - the army of political operatives, pollsters, consultants, think-tankers waiting for a chance to get back in government again, who hung on to the Clintons’ coat-tails -- can now be replaced by the Obamites.
It would also be in part a generational change. The Clintons were the children of the 1960s, late baby-boomers. They came of age when civil rights and Vietnam were the main issues. Obama is post-60s. He came of age in the era of Ronald Reagan and the end of the Cold War. Much has been made of Obama being post-political, most of it nonsense - how can a politician be post-political? - but the phrase does get at a difference between the younger man and the older couple. He’s not interested in their politics. We’ll see if his politics is sufficient to win the Democrats what they rarely have in the past 50 years - the presidency.
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